TOURISM AND AVIATION: CRITICAL LINKAGES 

Funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (New Zealand) (now the Ministry of Science and Innovation) and the Tourism Strategy Group in the Ministry of Economic Development (formerly the Ministry of Tourism) this three-year project (August 2009 - August 2012) will examine the supply, demand and regulatory variables impacting carrier capacity and operations to, from and within New Zealand.

The research is designed to address the key questions of: (1) what are the key operational and regulatory policy drivers of commercial air services to, from and within New Zealand, and (2) how might policymakers and industry manage and reduce uncertainty and risks in the provision of air services for the benefit of New Zealand’s tourism sector?  By August 2012, the objective of this Research Programme is to develop a clear understanding of the key economic and political variables influencing the provision of international and domestic air services in New Zealand. 

We will: (1) identify the key drivers of supply and demand affecting inbound, outbound and domestic commercial air services; (2) review critically the policy environment that affects supply and demand of international air services and its impact on tourism sector; (3) assess the value of air services to New Zealand to assist with measuring the efficacy of potential policy responses; (4) develop research capacity into the dynamic nature of the global airline industry and its impact on the tourism sector; (5) transfer relevant insights and knowledge to the tourism sector and policymakers through a dissemination programme, Reference Group and the CATR website; and (6) share data and results with other teams participating in funded projects from FRST/TmT between 2009 and 2012.

Three stages are proposed: (1) a review of the long-run supply and demand drivers of aviation to, from and within New Zealand and the implications for tourism; (2) a study of the wider regulatory environment of commercial aviation activities to, from and within New Zealand, and (3) an external shock analysis, and resultant policy implications, of the value of international air services to New Zealand in relation to tourism and the wider economy.

This project will inform the tourism industry and government so they can maximise the effectiveness of their policy interventions and investments.  Policymakers and the tourism industry will be able to utilise practical results of this research to address questions regarding the optimal shape of air services to/from and within New Zealand and what policy options can be implemented to maximise returns from the tourism sector.  This is especially relevant given the slump in tourism demand from some of our key markets.  As well, the project is designed to develop research capacity within New Zealand in aviation and tourism linkages by developing new datasets and research capabilities both within academia and industry. This project will also inform other tourism research programmes undertaken by the Ministry of Tourism including the forecasting programme, Rugby World Cup forecasting, and tourism flows modelling.

The project is led by David Timothy Duval of the University of Otago’s School of Business, with key research activities being led by the leading consultancy firm Covec (Auckland) and Niven Winchester of the University of Otago’s Department of Economics.  This team offers a combination of practical and academic expertise, as well as deep involvement in existing New Zealand tourism research programmes and data collection processes. A Reference Group has been identified with agreement in principle provided by representatives from Tourism New Zealand, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Economic Development, Board of Airline Representatives (New Zealand) and the New Zealand Airports Association.  Key staff from the Tourism Strategy Group act as advisors on the project.

A pdf overview of this project (presented at a Workshop in Wellington in November 2009) can be downloaded here.

Outputs from the project can be viewed here.